The Ghanaian cedi ended last week on a softer note against the US dollar and has held near that level to open the new trading week, as global currency pressures tied to Middle East tensions continue to weigh on emerging market currencies.
On the Bank of Ghana (BoG) interbank market, the cedi opened the week of 2 March at GHS10.68 to 10.69 per dollar before edging lower through the week. By Friday, 6 March, the interbank rate had settled at GHS10.76 buying and GHS10.78 selling, a depreciation of roughly 0.47% over four trading sessions. The cedi held near that level as markets opened on Monday, 9 March.
Against the euro, the cedi showed mixed movements last week, opening near GHS12.64 on the interbank market before recovering to close the week around GHS12.51, ending virtually unchanged. The British pound similarly saw minor cedi losses, with the interbank rate moving from GHS14.39 to the same level by the close of the week.
The more significant pressure is visible in the retail market. At forex bureaus on 6 March, the dollar was selling at GHS11.75 while the interbank rate stood at GHS10.78, a spread of approximately 9% that points to persistent demand for dollars at the street level that the official market is not fully meeting.
Over the past twelve months, the cedi has still strengthened by more than 30% against the dollar, meaning the current gradual slide is a softening at the margins of a strong recovery, not a reversal of it. Databank Research has projected a year-end depreciation of 7.2% against the dollar, assuming no major systemic disruptions, a baseline that the widening retail-interbank spread and elevated oil prices are beginning to stress-test.
The cedi’s near-term direction will depend in large part on how long global oil prices remain elevated and whether the stronger dollar continues to draw demand away from emerging market currencies.
